Supreme Court retirement? Don't bet on it.

The Associated Press noted today that "many expect" Chief Justice Rehnquist to announce his retirement in the next few weeks.

Don't bet on it, for two reasons.

First, the Court has agreed to hear an abortion case next fall to decide the constitutionality of New Hampshire's parental notification law. If the justices want to do this, then in all likelihood they want to do this personally. Chief Justice Rehnquist in particular has shown great concern for the national reputation of the Supreme Court, and the idea that he'd step down and let a rookie justice take all the political heat for a 5-4 abortion ruling is just out of character for him. Far more likely that he'd stick around for the most controversial rulings and then leave, satisfied that he had personally overseen the Court's most difficult decisions and left the institution in good shape for the future.

Second, people who have gold stripes sewn on their sleeves never retire. They go out like Elvis.

Will any of the other justices retire? Not likely. Justice O'Connor, frequently mentioned as a likely candidate for retirement, will not want to take any action that shifts the balance of the Court away from the moderate views she favors. She has worked too hard and given up too many years to have all her carefully-crafted efforts go spinning down the drain now.

Likewise, eighty-something Justice John Paul Stevens will not give up his post as the Court's liberal lion to be replaced by a conservative. He'll break Cal Ripken's record before he lets that happen.

Beyond ideology, it's just an iron law of fame that people don't give up those jobs. They like the power, the prestige, the chauffeur-driven car, the special perks and privileges that make a quiet private life so desolate by comparison.

Barring the sound of an ambulance in the night, there will be a No Vacancy sign on the Supreme Court when it adjourns for the summer. Bet on it.


Copyright 2005

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